A record-size run of pink salmon may be headed toward Washington state

Biologists expect a record number of pink salmon to return to Puget Sound and Washington rivers and streams this year. And while that may seem like a good signal about salmon habitat, it's also raising some concerns. Matt Bogaard is a specialist in chum, pink and sockeye salmon species with the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife. He spoke to KUOW’s Kim Malcolm about what a big run of pinks means for our region.

This interview has been edited for clarity.

Kim Malcolm: For folks who don't follow the pinks very closely, tell us how they compare with other salmon species?

Matt Bogaard: They are our smallest salmon species. They only return to Washington in odd years. So, last year we saw very few pink salmon, but this year we're expecting to see quite a few.

We don't hear a lot about them in the news headlines, but they are plentiful around here, right?

Yeah, absolutely. They are an important commercial and recreational and tribal fishery food source. I think maybe they get a little bit less attention because they're the smallest of our salmon species, but in odd years when we see them, they're definitely abundant.

Just how abundant are we talking about?

Throughout the North Pacific, pink salmon are the most abundant salmon species, comprising 70% of all the Pacific salmon. Specifically in Washington, we see that ranging anywhere from five to 10 million in Puget Sound.

How big could this run be?

This year in Washington, we're expecting to see somewhere around 7.5 million pink salmon returning. That would be in the top five of our records going back to 1959. We're also expecting a record return to the Fraser River, which will definitely impact our North Puget Sound fisheries.

And how do you know that it's likely to be a big run. How do you measure this?

We do a lot of work with our tribal co-managers to estimate the adult returns. Our biologists are out there in the streams in the summer, counting the adults as they return. We're out there counting the juveniles as they're heading out to the ocean in the spring. So, we work together to try to tie in all of those factors that might impact salmon survival, things like ocean temperature, potentially fresh water environmental factors, and then we try to tie that into our forecasts and expectations for this year.

Why are they doing so well this year?

That's a great question, and we're still trying to get a better understanding of that ourselves. But as we've seen throughout the world, pink salmon seem to be taking advantage of variable ocean conditions, and because of their short life cycle, they're able to have a sort of boom or bust life strategy. So, they really take advantage of those highly variable conditions, showing up in high numbers.

There are scientists who argue that too many pinks can actually be a problem. Do you agree with that?

Yeah, that can be a complicated topic. Some things that we're seeing in very specific situations and in some of our systems throughout the North Pacific is that high abundances of pink salmon can actually lead to declines in other salmon species. That's largely related to their high abundance, and taking advantage of food resources, whether it's in the ocean or in freshwater ecosystems.

What could this mean for our orca population, which is under tremendous pressure when it comes to trying to find enough to eat?

Our Southern Residents really prefer to eat large Chinook salmon. Recent research has shown that higher abundances of pink salmon might be related to declines in specific Chinook salmon stocks. So, anything that's going to negatively impact those Chinook salmon might be bad news for our southern residents.

Why is it that orcas can't just switch their diets? Why can't they just say, there's lots of pink salmon, I'll take advantage of that?

I expect it has a lot to do with the prey species itself. Pink salmon tend to be quite a bit smaller fish than Chinook salmon. They also carry a lot lower fat reserves, so they're just probably a less valuable food item than a Chinook salmon.

People who fish commercially say going after pinks is an issue around here, and this has to do with processing capacity. Can you talk a little bit about what the issue is there?

Pink salmon can actually be a highly valuable fish source throughout the world, throughout southeast Alaska, and into Washington. The issue can be that in these high abundance years, we actually run into freezer and storage capacity issues. In Washington, since pink salmon only show up in odd years, that can be a difficult thing to plan.

Listen to the interview by clicking the play button above.